Entrenched Economic and Ukraine Trends
- Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist | World’s most accurate currency forecaster at ACY
- 24.02.2022 12:15 pm #stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.
We are seeing clear signs of a significant economic slow-down worldwide. While at the same time, wholesale and consumer prices are going in the opposite direction.
Prices started to accelerate at first due to supply chain disruption, then "freedom of pricing", and now due to war and the further risk thereof.
It seems the world is being confronted with a perfect storm of challenges. Underlying all of this is that the expected economic surge post lockdowns was only ever going to be temporary. Something, that not all economists and market participants seemed to fully grasp. There was this feeling of a new economic age, but it was being fed by artificial supports of quantitative easing, near zero interest rates and massive stimulus measures.
The rolling over of the global economy has been in place for some time, from China to Europe to the USA. This is not a strong position from which to deal with the prospect of a significant strategic conflict. One that will directly cause disruption, and also the sanctions themselves will not only slow the Russian economy but impact Europe as well. This does not mean sanctions are a bad idea, just that when considering the outlook for the global economy for the remainder of the year, they will have an impact.
The World Bank and other organisations have been steadily rolling back their rather optimistic expectations of last year.
Financial markets are understandably experiencing significant re-pricing. The trends so far seen of weaker stocks, a strong US dollar and the strengthening of Gold are likely to continue for some time.
US Mortgage Applications continue to fall sharply.
German Consumer Morale is about as bad as it gets, and understandably given Ukraine.
Wheat Prices
Spiking to a 9 year high due to Ukraine and Russia both being major producers.
Argentina GDP Q4 9.8%
Stabilising at a very strong 9.8% level.
Peru GDP Q4 3.2%
Should begin to plateau reasonably here.
Late Yesterday Video Update.
Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.
The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.
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