• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist | Word’s most accurate currency forecaster at ACY Securities


• 23.12.2021 10:30 am
#stocks

They told me to isolate.

I think this is what they meant?

Suppose to be on holidays, but just can't help myself.

Yes, the market was higher again in New York, and yes I am risking "stubborn" but it is honestly still in the range.

US Economic Data was beat up as positive.

Why? Because they rose.

Let's not mention these were small increases after savage falls and the absolute values are still quite scary. That's the financial news headline writers and grabbers for you. Positive is popular, so every thing is great all the time.

The real mover, economically speaking, was on the inflation front with the PCE indicator rising the most in 39 years? As we were the first to say globally, inflation is out of the box, a wild cat, and it is only going to get much worse.

US Personal Spending.

Could be in a weakening trend, even as prices rise. A serious concern for any decent economist. Doldrums doesn't even begin to describe it.

US Personal Income.

Rising 0.6% might spin well, but in this new historical context and given the rate of inflation, this is a lose/lose situation for the US economy.

US Consumer Sentiment. SPIN CITY.

A picture spun as a reason to buy stocks?

US Consumer Sentiment. THE TRUTH.

These are small oscillations sitting heavily at 10 year lows. How is that good?

WAIT FOR IT. The BIG performer, PCE Core Inflation:

39 Year High... up 5.7%.

US New Jobless Claims.

Stable at 205,000.

US New Home Sales.

Property bubble bursting stuff, not to mention the rate hike tsunami coming fast.

Hence, I am taking the risk of stubborn as there was really only "worry" in yesterday's US data. Spin can only hold out for so long against real Main Street hard realities.

Hope I have once again cheered you up, and all the best for this evening and tomorrow. Special times.