Tinkoff Investments has launched Tinkoff InvestIndex, a set of indices that represent Russian investors’ activity and sentiment. Tinkoff InvestIndex shows what securities investors are buying or selling, what industries they favour, and what currencies they are holding. The Index is based on anonymous data collected from more than a million investors registered on Tinkoff Investments’ Pulse social network.

The project consists of several indicators that track Russian investors’ market activity and sentiment.

• Tinkoff InvestIndex represents, on a 100-point scale, the overall sentiment of Russian investors trading on the Moscow and Saint Petersburg Exchanges over the last month, revealing the extent to which investors have confidence in market growth or decline in that period. In general, the index shows the changes for both stock exchanges for a period of one week.

• Tinkoff InvestIndex dynamics show how much investors are increasing or decreasing their positions by, and in doing so highlights bullish, or bearish, trends.

• The Trading Activity Index shows how actively investors are trading securities.

• Tinkoff InvestIndex by Industry reveals changes in investor behaviour toward securities from the 10 largest industries against the S&P index and the MOEX index.

• Tinkoff InvestIndex for USD shows the extent to which investors are increasing or decreasing their holdings of USD.

• The Top Buy and Sell Leaders index reveals the stocks which investors have most drastically increased or decreased their positions in over the course of a day, week, month, or year.

Dmitry Panchenko, CEO of Tinkoff Investments:

“Tinkoff Investments is a leading Russian broker, so our customers’ activity is an accurate barometer of market sentiment. We have taken anonymous data on the trading activity of our customers and extrapolated it to gain insights into the entire market and enable us to assess prevailing trends. We have developed a universal service and hope that Tinkoff InvestIndex will be useful for both beginner investors and experts, in particular, for media reporters who will now be able to use this data for professional purposes.”

Tinkoff InvestIndex Dynamics

Tinkoff InvestIndex Dynamics

This index reveals the extent to which investors have increased or decreased their market positions.

A value on the right axis higher than 50 indicates bullish trends, while a lower value indicates bearish trends.

How to compute the index

MOEX    SPSE    Month    Half year    Year

1 Jun    3 Aug    1 Oct    1 Dec    1 Feb    1 Apr

This indicator shows the extent to which investors are increasing or decreasing their positions, and therefore indicates bullish, or bearish, market trends.

The data can be viewed for a month, six months or a year, for MOEX and SPSE, and compared with IMOEX, or the S&P 500.

For example, the graph above reveals that, in November 2020, investor interest in Russian stocks decreased sharply (red section). This may have been due to the US presidential elections, the results of which were unfolding in the first week of November. Joe Biden’s victory increased not only the risk of sanctions but also a broader deterioration in US-Russian relations.

In April, investor sentiment towards the Russian market improved thanks to Russian companies releasing sufficiently strong results statements, stocks in extractive industries performing well, and the public becoming increasingly confident in economic recovery.

Trading Activity Index

Trading Activity Index

Shows how actively investors have traded in comparison to average activity

How to compute the index

MOEX    SPSE    Month    Half year    Year

1 Jun    3 Aug    1 Oct    1 Dec    1 Feb    1 Apr

This index shows how actively investors are trading against standard indicators. The indicator data can be viewed for a month, six months, or a year, for MOEX and SPSE, and compared with IMOEX, or the S&P 500.

The index shows spikes on the Saint Petersburg Exchange due to heightened volatility in US stock exchanges. For example, in June 2020, Russian investors reacted to the growth of airline stocks, and in February 2021, to the hype around Gamestop. We can also see that trading volumes are now decreasing on both stock exchanges, which is a result of both economic recovery efforts, the lifting of quarantine restrictions (people are now spending more time walking, visiting restaurants and watching movies, and therefore have less time to trade), and a general decline in market volatility.

Buy and Sell Leaders

This indicator reveals the securities which investors have most drastically altered their position in (either positively or negatively) over the course of a day, week, month, or year, on the Moscow and Saint Petersburg Exchanges.

The Top 5 most popular Russian and foreign securities of the past year are as follows:

Buy and Sell Leaders

Stocks which investors have increased or decreased their positions in the most

Aeroflot

SberBank

Gazprom

MTS

Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works

Buy and Sell Leaders

Stocks in which investors have increased or decreased their positions in the most

MOEX    SPSE    Day    Week    Month    Year    18 May 2020 to 5 May 2021

Increased number of owners

Among these leading stocks is a retail investor favourite – Apple, the world’s largest technology company. Many people have also invested in Pfizer over the past year, hoping to profit from the success of its coronavirus vaccine and earn good dividends. Meanwhile, Alibaba made it into the top list despite its stock dropping in price due to antitrust proceedings in China, revealing that mass investors perceived this fall as a good point of entry for holding the stock long-term.

The most popular Russian securities of the past year were Sberbank and Aeroflot, which investors have relied upon to recover from the pandemic. Many people are also attracted by the high dividends paid out by Russian companies, which explains the investor interest in MTS and metals companies for which 2021 will be a peak year.

Tinkoff InvestIndex by Industry

Tinkoff InvestIndex by Industry

Shows how much investors increased or decreased their positions by in specific industries

6 May    1 Jul    1 Sep    2 Nov    4 Jan    1 Mar    3 May

Finances    Consumer goods    Healthcare    Energy    Raw Materials    Engineering and Transport

Telecommunications    Oil and Gas    Construction    S&P 500        MOEX Index

This indicator tracks how much investors have increased or decreased their positions by in the 10 largest industries, and compares this data with the S&P index and the MOEX index.

According to the index, investor demand for financial and engineering companies has been growing in recent months, however, investor interest in healthcare, raw materials, and IT has decreased. At the end of April, investors were particularly active in selling technology company stocks as they considered them overvalued, with even strong financial statements proving insufficient to reverse this trend. The NASDAQ index corrected in May, and it appears investors are now trying to buy back stocks.

Tinkoff InvestIndex for USD

Tinkoff InvestIndex for USD

Shows how much investors increase or decrease their holdings of USD by

1 Jun    3 Aug    1 Oct    1 Dec    1 Feb    1 Apr

Dollar index    Dollar exchange rate

The index shows how much investors have increased or decreased their holdings of USD by.

The above data shows that in October 2020, the surge in the USD/RUB FX rate forced investors to reduce their holdings in dollars to benefit from the favourable rate (highlighted in the yellow section). In April 2021, this situation occurred once more amid growing geopolitical tensions and a rise in the value of the dollar. This is in line with rational investor behaviour, with investors looking to increase their overall portfolio returns.