• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY


• 18.02.2022 02:30 pm
#stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGjd-zev2fw

US House Starts had a big fall as the struggle to again lift the debt ceiling to keep government running rages late into the night. All is not well in any case, and the last thing the US and the world need now, is a major war.

US Philadelphia Fed Factory Index struggles to stay positive.

US Stocks Fall, but still in range.

We have really only seen a decline toward the bottom of the range of the past week so far. This is because we are all clinging to the idea that it will turn out to have only been a game of brinkmanship.

Not to repeat myself, but it really does need to be said, what we are hearing in our western mainstream media is not the vitally relevant Russian perspective. It is after all what Russia thinks that will decide whether military force is used.

Why is Putin/Russia making this bold and dangerous move?

Please do not think I am taking sides here, my only interest is for you to have an understanding as to the probability of real all out war. We can only get that answer by considering the Russian perspective.

In a nutshell.

1. President Gorbachev brought down the Wall allowing East Germany to become part of Germany again and for it to become part of NATO too. On the proviso that NATO would not move even one more inch to the east.
2. A democratically elected pro-Russia Ukrainian government was overthrown by huge protests.
3. To protect its major Naval bases in Ukraine, vital in strategic terms, Russian forces annexed Crimea. Much of the population is Russian speaking.
4. Fresh democratic elections delivered a very pro-West government. Which now wants to join NATO. There are reports of pro-Russian politicians having been arrested and dissenting TV stations being closed. And the West is enthusiastic about this expansion of NATO.
5. Not only is Russia annoyed to say the least and beginning to feel surrounded by NATO, but NATO forces in Ukraine would also isolate their major naval bases in Crimea.

Russia feels the West is going back on Gorbachev's agreement, that Ukraine has a large Russian population, and the West is attempting a major strategic under-mining long term of Russia's military capability.

It does not matter whether we agree. It does matter that we understand from the Russian perspective why they are doing this. And therefore why actual war is of a very high probability if the West refuses to rule out Ukraine NATO membership.

If the West is not going to acquiesce, then the sooner Russia secures a greater and significant buffer to Crimea through the taking of large scale Ukrainian territory the better. Russia needs to act now before Ukraine does become part of NATO. Putin has repeatedly requested a NATO back down to avoid conflict. The West in response is ramping up its determination for Ukraine to be a member of NATO. This is only amplifying the Russian dilemma and is making war almost inevitable.

We all hope and pray for diplomatic resolution at the last moment, but this does not appear likely. Especially, when you consider what the Russian point of view is on all of this. They are feeling greatly threatened and a need to act now.

The moves so far seen in the likes of Stocks and Gold will prove to be mere hiccups compared to what will happen of Russia takes a shock and awe approach to invading Ukraine.

US New Home Starts

US Jobless Claims remain elevated.

Yesterday's Video:
US Retail Sales. Japan Exports. Australian Un-employment.
Charts: EUR, AUD, Gold Focus, US500 AUS200.
What we expect.

ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.