• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist | World’s most accurate currency forecaster at ACY


• 04.04.2022 05:00 pm
#stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Global markets have opened Monday trading with a slight risk+on bias.

The Euro, GBP and AUD are all attempting to consolidate after some weakness, with a look to move higher. Is the US dollar topping out?

Further evidence of this is that Gold and Oil are both holding up reasonably well.

Stocks are generally bid on the day.

The economic fundamentals of the moment show reasonable job creation in the USA, but the ISM for manufacturing is flashing warning signs. While Europe faces rampant inflation that continues to climb . China, significant impact from Covid lockdowns.

The on-going tragedy of Ukraine confirms the general supply chain disruption, scarcity of energy and foods outlook for the world.

There is no argument that the fundamental outlook for Europe, China and the USA, is anything but worrisome.

There is a bullish argument. Actually a couple of them.

The huge quantitative easing and near zero rates of the past couple of years have created such a globally circulating wash of money, that it can still only largely find a home in equity markets.

The second valid consideration, is that share buy-backs by the biggest corporations in the world have been a major force in the recent strong recovery of markets. These will continue.

Australian stocks have the additional benefits of high commodity prices and the world’s slowest central bank.

The principle argument for being bearish equities is the economic outlook. Which I described on Friday as the worst matrix globally I have seen in a third of a century of being in markets.

The bullish argument is very simple indeed. There will be further high levels of speculation on the market.

Economic fundamentals versus sentiment greed? The latter always wins in the short term. The former eventually with delay and emphatically.

A price level to watch is 4450 in the US500. A New York close above there, would suggest the balance was shifting to further speculation in a sustained manner. Often called risk+on.

Expect Monday trading around the world to have a slight drift higher bias. In NY we will discover if there are any of the largest funds adjusting their portfolios for the economic reality ahead of us. Which could see a US recession in the second half of the year.

Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.