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I recently read a BBC article, the headline of which shocked me: “Blockchain: The revolution that hasn't quite happened.” Yet, just a few days later, I read that the Bank of England has teamed up with other major central banks to assess the case for launching their own digital currencies as the debate rages on over the future of money. As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Disruptive innovations take time to become mainstream but, when they do, we look back and wonder how we ever operated without the technology – obvious examples being email and smartphones. One of my favourite reads is Geoffrey Moore’s “Crossing the Chasm”, which describes the evolution of any given community’s acceptance of a disruptive innovation, organising it into four key stages that, according to a Forbes interview with the author, can be summarised as follows:
Using this framework, let’s now consider blockchain adoption:
Blockchain is following the same traditional technology adoption life cycle that other disruptive technologies have undergone before, and at Finboot we firmly believe that we will see full mainstream adoption in the next decade. External factors such as the increasing focus on ESG measurement, sustainability tracking, and increased transparency and cooperation in supply chains may speed up the time taken significantly.
Gartner has estimated that by 2025 the business value added by blockchain will grow to slightly more than $176 billion, then surge to exceed $3.1 trillion by 2030. So, rather than a technology that hasn’t realised its potential, let’s step back and consider blockchain as a revolution that is picking up momentum!