• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY


• 20.04.2022 09:45 am
#stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

The Dow Jones looks like it is breaking up out of a significant consolidation period to re-continue the previous up-trend higher.

The Nasdaq appears ready to collapse through the bottom of its recent trading range.

The SP500 looks confused running from one side of the boat to the other.

While Australian equities and currency are torn between slowing global growth and high commodity prices?

Even European stocks managed a rally on the day, but is the bullish sentiment which seems to be constantly lurking in the background of all equity markets, really sustainable given world events and the overall economic outlook.

The IMF and World Bank have just downgraded their forecasts. I did say they would be doing so after some clearly overly optimistic previous efforts. These downgrades are however in keeping with the growing view among economists everywhere that serious problems lay ahead. Not behind us. Ahead of us.

Even with consolidation or some weakness in commodity prices, they will remain highly elevated from a year ago. Gas has had a big correction, but is still double where it was before the latest crises. This means that even a levelling off in inflation would leave consumers struggling as wages have not kept pace. When very late Federal Reserve rate hikes hit consumers and businesses alike, the combination, higher interest rates and inflation levels that will not be solved by such hikes, will significantly slow economic growth.

Talk of a US recession in 2024 is highly mistaken.

It is far more likely to eventuate in the second half of this year.

Slowing economic growth in the world’s three largest economies simultaneously only adds up to a more worrisome outlook for equity markets. And the commodity price boom may not be over at all. Further inflation yet again on top of the current predicament would be very ominous indeed.

Separation and individualisation of markets is likely to continue, but this could lead to greater volatility in the months ahead. Not all of it good.

Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

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