• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY


• 01.02.2022 03:15 pm
#stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Up we go?

Quick Take: There is a 30% probability this could be the absolute bottom for stocks and currencies. That is high, coming from this fundamental bear.

There are only two scenarios. The above. And then the possibility we are only one third of the way into this major correction phase.

Everything is the biggest ever. Why not the corrections too?

Good morning,

There was a lot of interesting data just released. The run of which continues to point to a still slowing China, a retrenchment of the consumer and definitely moderating manufacturing in China.

It is not out of the question that China and the USA could be the two big disappointments of the year. Economically speaking.

Some of this has already been priced in to equities. Hence the immediate and very significant correction we had to have. Also, a small portion of the risk of Ukraine conflict has been priced in. Fundamentally, I believe further downside correction is appropriate.

The market may have other ideas. We were quite clear in our expectation for a rally in Monday trading in New York. It looked to be tiring late in the day, but post close the futures have kicked on.

It is not quite clear yet, as to whether this is a correction, range trading consolidation before we head much lower, or we have already in fact seen the absolute low point. My feeling is that there is another 12-18 hours of moderate buying. We will then discover if there is any further real institutional selling still to hit the market.

My favoured scenario is this moderate rally beginning to tire, for an extended period, perhaps a couple of weeks around current levels consolidation, before again resuming a major down-trend of quite significant quantum.

Clifford Bennett

Australian Factory Activity flatlines.

The Australian Industry Group Survey.

US Chicago PMI falling back.

US Texas Manufacturing Activity Index.

German GDP languishing.

Taking a look at the run of data, makes you wonder what the excitement in financial markets has all been about.

Have the best of days,

Clifford Bennett

ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

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