• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY


• 28.02.2022 11:00 am
#stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Good morning, Key Points,

The scenario of the West cornering Russia too aggressively is happening.

This is not saying Sanctions and more should not happen. The response should be huge, but it should be done being aware that cornering a wild animal can lead to even more dangerous circumstances. Such actions taken against Russia can generate a heightened response. This is how all major wars begin, from side to side further escalation.

NATO activated its Rapid Response Battalions sent to Russian border.

Russia, in just the past few hours has activated its STRATEGIC ALERT. This includes NUCLEAR WEAPONS placed at a high level of alert.

This is a warning, but unlikely to be used. However, this Strategic level of readiness also includes conventional missile systems capable of reaching across Europe. It allows Russia to take out for instance a train load of tanks Germany may be sending Ukraine while it is crossing Poland. Just an example. This is very dangerous stuff. 

Russia is feeling an over-reaction war like response from NATO now. Which means they up their stance as well. This is not about agreeing with them. It is all about being accurate about what could happen and where things are, and that necessarily includes the Russian/Putin state of mood, motivation and capabilities.

Europe is most certainly immediately entering a Recession.

Sanctions hurt both parties. Consumer and Business sentiment will be all about saving their funds just in case.

The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike at the next meeting.

It is still a possibility, but if the fighting further intensifies with NATO involvement via heavy weaponry supplied to Ukraine, then it would be cause for concern about the wisdom of hiking now. Rather than waiting to see how the strategic and economic implications of what is happening begin to pan out.

Stocks are likely to decline significantly.

Thursday/Friday saw strong rallies on the idea of buying the dip which I argued against. There was always risk of deterioration over the weekend, but it has been even worse than my worst case scenario.

ECB will intervene to support the Euro.

Personally favour selling the Euro now, and again after their first round of intervention.

Central themes of selling stocks, buying Gold, buying the US dollar/Selling EUR and AUD remain in place.

Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.