- 2 days 17 hours ago 07:00 am
- 2 days 18 hours ago 06:00 am
- 6 days 18 min ago 03:00 am
- 6 days 33 min ago 04:00 am
- 6 days 19 hours ago 08:00 am
Jobless Claims climbing.
New York made a big effort to rally at first, but this was quickly swamped by spiking higher New Jobless Claims, stories of National Guard being called in to teach in schools as teacher absenteeism sky-rockets, and generally a state of decline becomes all too apparent across the full national economy.
Add the blunder by President Biden in his remarks on Ukraine and the increasing likelihood Russia could re-take Ukraine at any moment, and it is a wonder the market has not fallen further.
But wait.... it still might.
I would suggest the risk for today is accelerating downside, rather than any significant recovery in prices at all. What is happening right now is encouraging our fundamental and price action analysis which has been warning us for months that the equity market is a high risk proposition at these levels.
It still has not sunk in with most banks and other economists that the world's major economies are slowing. That the recovery phase has come and gone. That we are entering a more entrenched economic slow-down period. The evidence is everywhere, but everyone wanted to ignore it and just keep looking across the valley? It is not a valley.
There is no half-measure way of saying it.
Should Russia press on into Ukraine, then stocks will collapse as well they should. As I said yesterday; Gold $2,000, Oil $100, AUDUSD 65 cents, and from quite some time ago; US500 4050, AUS200 6800.
The US dollar will resume its major up-trend process as a hedge against great global uncertainty over the pandemic, the nature of the true economy and now the risk of a significant war.
Hopefully, I am completely and utterly wrong. It is just that my "look out the window" commonsense economic view of the world has been screaming to me for some time that the great disconnect between stocks and reality cannot last much longer.
PS Yes, I am telling you to hedge your portfolio exposures.
US New Jobless Claims
Begin to spike higher. The US is only in the very early stages of this Omicron and run-down of stimulus broad based economic slow-down. The duration will be over the horizon.
US Existing Home Sales
Begin to fall again. Think property bubble bursting.
Confirmed out of control.
Gold 2 hourly
Will be pushed lower by a stronger US dollar at first, but again expect reassertion and eventually moving much higher.
EURUSD 2 hourly
Attempted rally failed. US dollar begins to ride global panic buying.
US500 2 hourly
One way street high risk potential.
AUS200 2 hourly
It is a collapsing trend.
Economics in the park.
Wednesday a reasonable recap,
Even has jokes.
The Quick Story.
Have the best of days.
ACY Securities Chief Economist.
The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.
All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
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