Finding Peace. There Is Perhaps Only One Way
- Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist | World’s most accurate currency forecaster at ACY
- 15.02.2022 01:00 pm #stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.
Good morning,
Though I have been amplifying awareness of the very real risk of tragedy unfolding for Ukraine, there is also the prospect of a peaceful path being discovered.
What this would like is a resolution by all parties of keeping Ukraine both sovereign and independent (code for non-NATO). An independent state and strong commitment to such may allow for a withdrawal of Russian troops and actually generate an economic prosperity for Ukraine where it would be able to trade fully with both the West and Russia. Perhaps Ukraine itself could steer such a path. This would be real grounds for hope.
Working against such an outcome is the pressure from the West to favour Ukraine joining NATO. For peace to prevail, it would appear the West has to give up that attachment.
The reality of markets is a still heavy nature at the prospect of conflict. Should some positive development along the above lines occur however, then stocks and the Euro would quickly climb. Gold and Oil would correct downwards. So, volatility to any position remains a very present risk. We should not fool ourselves that a bet in either direction has a high probability at this moment.
Small positions in line with one's favoured view, if correct, would empower not only immediate profits, but also psychologically position a trader for a fast moving snow-balling opportunity.
The last point I would like to leave you with on this subject is that should conflict break out it will be a Russian version of 'shock and awe'. It will not consist of limited small skirmishes. This shock and awe factor will not only have the desired impact on the populous of the region, but also dramatically move markets with convulsion. The price shifts are likely to be far greater than anyone currently foresees.
That there is the possibility of good news within 24 hours from the outcome of direct talks currently being held between Russia and Ukraine, is something we should all give energy to.
Clifford Bennett
US Inflation Expectations
Moderated, but remain at massively high levels consistent with an enduring elevated inflation path that the Fed simply must address. I am leaning toward an initial 25 point rate hike followed by two further 50 point rate hikes in quick succession. Though a run of three 50 point hikes cannot be ruled out.
Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.
The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.
All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplied by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
