Developing Smooth Trends Data and Omicron
- Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist at ACY Securities
- 10.12.2021 04:00 pm #stocks
All around the world the economic data remains quite the mixed bag. Though some trends are becoming clearer. Europe and China are in the midst of distinct slowing phases.
For Europe, there is a closer light at tunnel's end, that being when reasonable natural herd immunity is achieved to whatever variant crops up.
For China, as I have said previously, this is a permanent, as in historic tectonic shift toward more normal by western standards rates of economic growth. By this I mean the hay days of western growth, rather than the recent years of general struggle against the weights of over-regulation and taxation alongside squeezed profit margins.
The USA is now on a slightly different trajectory. It has had the forecast and rather significant slow-down but is now beginning to bounce back a little. Do not be fooled. The US economy is a changed beast. Expect a settling phase to around or just below trend growth. Expect significant readjustment of the US economy to be on-going as outlined in today's video.
We also take another look at Omicron. Does it matter?
US New Jobless Claims extreme low.
CORRECTION to my video comment. Claims came in even lower at just 184,000. A 52 year low in fact. In the video I attack this from a very interesting angle. Low jobless claims while millions remain out of the workforce?
Germany Trade Balance weakens.
While pandemic driven, the reset nature there could mean a long-term lessening of the wealth creation generators of exports and tourism.
New Zealand Factory Activity dips.
As everyone seeks for a new normal, the waves are still sloshing about, the overall level though looks to be diminished in a longer lasting fashion than many would like.
Oil could still be at risk.
It looks to have reacted fabulously from that low point, but this is one of the most volatile markets throughout history. The market needs to hold onto recent gains in a sustained consolidation phase. Any sharp resumption of selling could be a warning of another test of 65. Perhaps risking 57.
