Australian Data Looks Bleak

  • Clifford Bennett , Chief Economist at ACY Securities

  • 17.01.2022 12:00 pm
  • #stocks , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Australian Latest.

Weakness entrenching.

The Australian economy is a very long way from the strong recovery so confidently heralded by our Treasurer and Reverse Bank Governor.

Australian Building Permits

Up 3.6% last month. Which delivers a seven month total since the renewed lockdowns of negative 44% and small recovery phases of just 11%. Nice to see a positive month but not something to get terribly excited about.

Australian Private House Approvals

Again slowing, and with just 9.6% total gains against 40.8% in declines. These are not strong economy or even momentary lockdown recovery spikes.

Australian 10 year bond yields

Continue to threaten a sharp break back into the 2.5% to 3.5% area as forecast last year.

It is worth noting that 69% of hospitalisations in NSW are double vaccinated. As unfortunately are around 70% of deaths. As high as 80% on Sunday.

We all need to be careful, but not fearful. Even if you get Covid, the probability of going to hospital is very low. It is just that the absolute numbers are so high. Causing health system stress. The relatively high numbers in the course of the Australian experience mean voluntary semi-lockdown economic behaviour will persist for several more weeks.

The Outlook

Is for a weakening trend in economic growth overall combined with rising interest rates. Entrenched below trend growth over the next few years is unavoidable. All while inflation begins to trend significantly higher.

Government over-stimulus spending and Reverse Bank bad management have painted our economy into a rather dim corner.

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