Comment: US Unemployment Drop could Imply Progress in the Eyes of the Fed

  • Caleb Thibodeau, Associate at Global Capital Markets

  • 08.10.2021 04:15 pm
  • #riskmanagement #capital #unemployement

Commenting on the drop in US unemployment and the Fed’s tapering schedule, Caleb Thibodeau - Associate, Global Capital Markets for Validus Risk Management, said: “Today’s jobs report has sent somewhat of a mixed signal, with a big miss in payroll figures versus expectations, yet a 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate to a fresh low since the beginning of the pandemic. This drop in unemployment to 4.8% appears to be a result of fewer Americans actively searching for new work.

“Regardless of higher expectations around added payrolls, the Fed’s mandate of ‘seeking maximum employment’ while maintaining price stability could reasonably be re-worded as ‘seeking minimum unemployment.’ This would imply progress with today’s report in the eyes of the Fed.

“At the most recent Fed meeting, Powell indicated that some members of the FOMC had already been convinced of ‘substantial further progress’ in the labour market. Hence, even an unchanged unemployment number may have qualified for some Fed officials as reason enough to continue tapering on schedule – giving a lot a reason for even more to be onboard with the November taper timeline now.”

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