• Clifford Bennett, Chief Economist | World’s most accurate currency forecaster at ACY


• 21.03.2022 01:00 pm
№ыещслы , Clifford Bennett has over 36 years of market trading experience and was named the 'World's most accurate currency forecaster' by Bloomberg New York. He has advised some of the world's largest organisations, billionaire investors, and political leaders and spoken at the prestigious APEC summit on reserve currency issues. Clifford is the Chief Economist at ACY Securities.

Stocks markets continue to rally hard on overly optimistic peace hopes.

Unwinding previously large war positioning and encouraging the joining of the 'buy the dip' fanatics. I say fanatics because over the past two years buying any dip regardless of the reason for it has reached almost cult status. Across social media and mainstream the idea that stocks are invincible long term has never had a more committed following. People have short memories. For it is possible for down-turns to last several years.

We do not know yet whether the current 2022 correction, which has so far been severe, has now completed itself or is just having a temporary upward correction on immediate end of war hopes.

Such hopes appear overly optimistic.

China has delivered a specific outline of their policy path forward regarding Ukraine. Focussing on humanitarian aid to Ukraine, stating it’s desire for peace, while maintaining economic ties with Russia and its alliance there.

There was in fact nothing new in what China has said in the past few days to what it has been saying all along. China desires a cease fire and peace, while maintaining its alliance with Russia. For markets to spin this into because China will not militarily help Russia the war will soon come to an end, is highly mistaken. Russia had already decided on a strategy that did not require China’s support.

Given the extreme degree of isolation of Russia by the western community of governments and business, though not to the same degree by the rest of the world, President Putin will increasingly be seeing the current situation as his having to go all in. Such a cornering of both the nation and the leader of Russia is unlikely to see any giving up of territory already taken in current “peace” talks. Which is what Ukraine demands even though now belatedly saying it would accept a form of neutrality.

The reality of war on the ground remains a human tragedy of horrific proportions. Sadly akin to all other wars. This pain does not appear likely to come to a hopeful sudden cessation.

It is not a pleasant thing to say, but it looks like the war will continue for some time while the economic disruption of Europe is only just beginning.

While stocks are reversing war trends, the Euro and Oil are again looking vulnerable.

Markets remain unsettled. The clearly very strong equity market rally looks like it can continue, but in the background the European slow-down and food and energy price shocks globally are only just beginning. Even if the war were to end as hoped by us all.

Clifford Bennett
ACY Securities Chief Economist.

The view expressed within this document are solely that of Clifford Bennett’s and do not represent the views of ACY Securities.

All commentary is on the record and may be quoted without further permission required from ACY Securities or Clifford Bennett.

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